Recently, reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald interviewed experts and professors. Almost all of them recommended Shenzhen, especially scholars who study regional economy. Many people clearly believe that Shenzhen is the only innovative city in China.
This is not advertising for Shenzhen.
The example cited by Chen Yao, secretary-general of the China Association of Regional Economics, is eye-catching. He said that private car services have been suspended in Shanghai and Beijing, but in Shenzhen, they are not currently defined as illegal.
This example is very representative. The reporter once arrived at the Beijing Airport around 1 a.m. At this time, the subway was no longer available, and some airport buses were no longer available. He waited for almost an hour to wait for a taxi, and saw that there was a queue of passengers almost 1 kilometer long in "Wu Yang Wu Yang". The reporter’s heart was broken. The number of taxis in Beijing, 66,000, has remained unchanged for many years, but if Internet taxis are not allowed to be used, are thousands of passengers left to shiver in the cold winter wind?
Policy decision-makers everywhere are worried about economic pressure, but they do not know that revolutions such as these Internet car services are the driving force for economic growth. Similar new models in which the Internet destroys all real industries are essentially emerging industries. , but this may be illegal from a policy perspective.
Yes, looking at the 2015 government work reports of various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, one of the most significant changes between this year and previous years is the emphasis on emerging industries, such as cloud computing, new energy, and new materials. , if these industries develop in various places, will they be like the so-called high-tech industries in the past, such as coal chemical industry, photovoltaic industry, etc., facing oversupply and becoming sunset industries?
This does have lessons learned from the past. For example, Wuxi developed the Internet of Things and photovoltaic industries many years ago, which were at their peak. Another example is Suzhou, which used to develop the notebook computer industry and was proud of the world. Now the total industrial output value has grown very little. The advantages in the past are today. Instead, it became a burden.
The wolf is really coming
The flowers are similar every year, but the people are different every year.
Chongqing, which had the fastest economic growth in 2014, is actually just following an old path and is not impeccable.
For example, in 2014, Chongqing ranked first in the growth rate of large-scale industries and the first economic growth rate, mainly relying on the notebook computer industry, and this industry was just transferred from Suzhou.
But in a few years, when the cost of migrant workers in Chongqing reaches the level of Shanghai, Suzhou, or Shenzhen, the industry will also face the possibility of being eliminated. Another pillar industry in Chongqing, automobiles, is actually about to reach an inflection point. A typical example is that both first- and second-tier cities have begun to impose purchase and travel restrictions.
Therefore, Chongqing is essentially pursuing gradient development, relying on the advantage of low labor costs.
Tianjin and Inner Mongolia were similar economic dark horses before Chongqing.
Inner Mongolia ranked first in economic growth for eight consecutive years from 2000 to 2007, with the highest growth rate reaching over 20% in the highest year. The per capita GDP of Ordos in Inner Mongolia even exceeds that of Shanghai and Hong Kong, but this development model of predatory mining of mineral resources is unsustainable. This is just a model that relies on low-cost resources, energy and other minerals.
However, history is still repeating itself. For example, some places are still offering many preferential conditions when attracting investment, such as zero land rent or financial and tax incentives and subsidies. The fact is that even if companies are recruited now, they may not be able to recruit migrant workers. The reason is that currently almost all general manufacturing sectors are actually in surplus.
The similar model of relying on land finance and real estate investment has come to an end. As far as the country is concerned, the development model that relied on low-cost manpower and land in the past 30 years has come to an end. The low-cost model and the development model that destroys the environment are actually no models at all, because the environmental damage is ultimately paid for by the health of residents, and the low-cost model of land and manpower only transfers the income that farmers deserve to enterprises and the government. Just in hand.
In fact, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Tianjin in the past were developed by the country in the 1980s, 1990s, and new century respectively. The eastern, western, and central regions also benefited from the country's gradual opening up and implementation of gradient development. In essence, there was no major institutional or institutional innovation. At the Two Sessions in 2014, an official from a certain province once said that he had always thought that the central government was going to launch a new stimulus policy of something like 4 trillion yuan, but it never came out. It was only later that he learned that the country would not engage in such a policy to quench thirst by drinking poison to quench thirst.
But there is a surplus of real estate, a surplus of traditional industries, the infrastructure is expected to be saturated, and residents’ consumption of cars and other products is restricted. Which way is it? The essence is still innovation.
Why Shenzhen
Some people say that Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province has made Alibaba and the birth of China’s original companies, which has a lot to do with its relaxed environment.
The rise of this new industry is actually a break from the monopoly of the existing industry and a breakthrough in the existing system: individuals are allowed to open stores and conduct transactions online without physical registration. This is a breakthrough in the current system, just like personal online education, online information publishing, and video publishing.
Similar to the drone market, under the current situation that China has not liberalized low-altitude drones, personal use without approval is essentially illegal.
But how big is the market for drones? This is actually a new industry after mobile phones, computers and other mass consumer products, because this industry can cost hundreds of yuan per unit in the future, and everyone can use it for photography and entertainment purposes. .
China’s mobile phones, computers, cars, and real estate have replaced TVs, sewing machines, etc. in the past, creating a generation of economic prosperity. In the future, if reforms such as low-altitude liberalization are included, it will bring about a market worth hundreds of billions, or even tens of trillions.
In fact, the fact that it is difficult for Chinese residents to provide for their elderly, see a doctor, and send their children to school is still due to the lack of openness in these fields. If these areas are liberalized, there will be huge investment space. Similarly, houses in cities can be sold, and if houses in rural areas are allowed to be purchased and farmers' homesteads are allowed to be rented, there will also be great market investment opportunities.
Therefore, the reason why Shenzhen has entered the attention of economists is due to the city’s protection of innovation: Shenzhen holds the Global Maker Conference, and there are innovative products all over the world. As long as you can come up with them, Shenzhen has complete With the industrial chain, products can be made according to the design. This is the reason why global makers are willing to launch their products in Shenzhen.
Then the problem comes. Shenzhen does not have 985 or 211 universities, nor does it have national scientific research institutes, nor does it have various minerals and various resources. However, it has succeeded, so it has 8 985 universities, which are listed by the country. Why can't Beijing, which is positioned as the national science and technology center, and Shanghai, Xi'an, Beijing, and Chengdu, which are relatively leading in science and technology investment, become global maker centers? This question is worth pondering.
There is only one answer to this. The key is the local attitude towards destructive innovative enterprises, whether to kill pigs or raise pigs.
The road is at your feet.