Why do you conduct uncertainty analysis? What are the basic methods?

The reason for uncertainty analysis is that in order to make a correct decision, it is necessary to make a technical and economic analysis of these uncertain factors, calculate their probability of occurrence and the degree of influence on the decision-making scheme, and choose the scheme with the best (or satisfactory) economic effect.

To analyze uncertainty, we need to rely on the knowledge, experience, information and judgment ability of future development of decision makers and adopt scientific analysis methods. The commonly used methods are: ① calculating the profit and loss value of the scheme. That is, the different benefits caused by various factors are calculated, and the scheme with the greatest benefit is the optimal scheme; ② Calculate the regret value of the scheme. That is, the difference between the profit value and the maximum profit value of the scheme adopted due to misjudgment of uncertain factors is calculated, and the scheme with the smallest regret value is the best scheme; ③ Using probability to find the expected value, that is, the standard value of scheme comparison, and the scheme with the best expected value is the best scheme; (4) Comprehensive consideration of decision-making criteria, without deviating from the rules. To sum up, uncertainty analysis can be divided into break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis, probability analysis and criterion analysis.