Now, many China students come back from the United States and Europe to escape the plague. They think they can go back to Europe and America to continue their studies and work by hiding from the limelight. But what they expected was that their return to China was likely to be a one-way trip, and then they might never return to Europe and America. It may take years or even longer for those famous European and American schools to reopen the dusty door.
However, the epidemic in early 2020, starting from 1840, is of extraordinary significance to China.
At present, according to the vicious and cunning characteristics of COVID-19 coronavirus pneumonia-19, it is impossible for human beings to completely eliminate it in a short time. It can be predicted that in the next few years or even more than ten years, the whole earth will tremble in the billowing smoke of coronavirus pneumonia-19 and its mutated offspring at all levels.
In the next few years or more than ten years, human survival is likely to enter such a mode:
1. The virus spreads back and forth between the northern and southern hemispheres in a "migratory bird mode".
1the first year of October1month-April and May of the following year, the virus (winter epidemic and spring epidemic) ravaged the northern hemisphere, while April and May of the following year-1October and the following year 165438+.
2. "No navigation", "sealing off the country", "sealing off the city" and "seclusion" will become the norm.
These extreme anti-epidemic methods will become the normal state that people all over the world may encounter at any time in their lives. The life of all mankind has shrunk to the bottom line of meeting only the basic survival needs, human social activities have been severely compressed, and the space for human development has shrunk to a minimum.
3. The quality of human life and the total population will drop sharply.
The tertiary industry will be hit hard, and the financial industry, entertainment and sports industry, tourism and catering industry will be miserable. Cross-regional investment will completely stagnate and international trade will be reduced to a minimum. The economy of China, the locomotive of the world economy, faces the risk of zero growth or even negative growth in a short time, while the GDP of many developed countries, which is dominated by the tertiary industry, will be halved. Globalization 1.0 will officially disintegrate, the average social productivity level will be greatly reduced, and the level of human science and technology will be reduced.
4. The global political economy will be reshuffled.
In the context of the growing epidemic, the global political and economic structure will be reshuffled round after round, and the probability of a large-scale hard-killing war will be greatly reduced, but the frequency of small-scale high-intensity local wars will increase sharply. Among them, biochemical warfare with human life as the goal will become an important form of war, even the main means.
5. More than one billion people will be wiped out naturally.
The world's population of 7.7 billion is absolutely surplus to the world's total output, so nature will directly or indirectly destroy 10 billion, 2 billion or even more people in its own cruel way.
Can humans defeat coronavirus pneumonia-19 virus by developing vaccines and new drugs?
At present, from the biological point of view, coronavirus pneumonia-19 virus is a perfect masterpiece, as exquisite, complex and ingenious as a grand symphony poem. In human history, there has never been such a powerful all-round nano-scale opponent.
Judging from the available public information, COVID-19 does not look like a naturally occurring virus. It has many characteristics that make it more like a micro (125 nm) intelligent robot, which can freely shuttle around human cells. Human lung, liver, kidney, brain, immune system, excretory system and reproductive system are all its targets. While launching an attack, it can easily escape the pursuit of drugs until it dies with its host.
First, the virus has super patience. It can lurk in the human body asymptomatic 14 days or even longer, in order to spread to the people it can reach to the greatest extent without being known.
Second, viruses have amazing strategies. Its mortality rate is not high or low, and the incubation period of appropriate combination is long. It can neither make the host die quickly, but also infect as many people as possible before it is discovered.
Third, the transmission route of the virus is unpredictable, and it can be spread through air, contact, diet and feces. Even according to the autopsy report of Shanghai Ruijin Hospital, it is entirely possible for the virus to spread through a large area of exposed damaged skin.
Fourth, the attack path of the virus is flickering. Scientists originally thought that COVID-19 established the attack path to human body mainly through angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE-2), but then the virus mutated and developed three new attack paths: Flynn, GRP78 and CD 147.
Fifth, some researchers believe that the virus actually has the characteristics and functions of hepatitis B virus and HIV, and can spread widely in the form of influenza. Even if the host is cured, the virus may live in the host for life. When all conditions are met, it will germinate again and make waves. It's like a tiger that was fierce, but now it suddenly grows wings and becomes invisible. As a result, all kinds of modern weapons are armed with human teeth, and only in this way will they be defeated and embarrassed in the first place.
This is not the only magic of the virus.
The virus is a single-stranded RAN coronavirus, which is extremely unstable and prone to mutation (the designer of the virus took a fancy to coronavirus from the beginning). Only before February 12, 2020, there were at least 5 haplotypes on the evolutionary tree of the virus.
In the future, during the worldwide epidemic, viruses will inevitably produce more and more mutations, reproduce more and more subtypes, and even recombine with other viruses to mutate and evolve some brand-new super viruses.
In addition, a message appeared on the Internet recently. It was found that before March 8th, a virus strain in Washington, USA had a 26-step mutation, a French strain had a 18 step mutation, and the earliest mutated virus strain in China was only one case in Hong Kong with a 10 step mutation.
In the fight against viruses, a passive but widely used method is to produce specific vaccines against viruses. However, the research and development cycle of vaccine needs at least several months or even a year, which is far less than the mutation speed of virus. In other words, without the intervention of effective drugs such as traditional Chinese medicine, human beings are actually chasing the virus by high-speed train, and they will only chase further and further and die more and more.
To take a step back, even after half a year or a year, vaccines and drugs have been developed to deal with the virus, but can these vaccines and drugs deal with the new subtypes that are constantly forming in various families of the virus? If the virus had mutated to a greater extent at that time, how should humans respond?
According to the news in Reykjavik on March 25th, an Icelandic COVID-19 patient was found to be infected with two kinds of COVID-19 at the same time, and the second one was a variant of the original COVID-19, which was the first time that a patient infected with double coronavirus was found in Iceland. In addition, Icelandic scientists found 40 virus variants in China.
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