The difference between "prospect" and "prospect analysis"

Prospect theory is the research result of psychology and behavioral science. The "prospect theory" was put forward by Kahneman and Watsky, which is a revision and development of the theory of maximum subjective expected utility. Prospect theory is a descriptive paradigm decision-making model, assuming that the risk decision-making process is divided into two processes: editing and evaluation. In the editing stage, individuals collect and process information with the help of "frames" and reference points, and in the evaluation stage, they rely on the weight function of value function and subjective probability to judge information. The present value function is empirical and has three characteristics. First, most people are risk-averse in the face of acquisition; Second, most people are risk-averse when facing losses; Third, people are more sensitive to loss than to gain. Therefore, people are often cautious in the face of acquisitions and are unwilling to take risks; In the face of loss, it will be very unwilling and easy to take risks. People are not sensitive to loss and gain, and the pain of loss is far greater than the happiness of gain.

Prospect analysis, also known as trend analysis, refers to an analysis method that compares the actual results with the historical data of similar indicators in financial statements in different periods, so as to determine the changing trends and laws of financial status, operating results and cash flow. The specific analysis methods are fixed ratio method and ring comparison method. The fixed ratio is based on a certain period, and other periods are compared based on this period. On the basis of the previous period, the next period is compared with the previous period.

As far as personal understanding is concerned, the difference lies in:

1, the prospect tends to be good subjectively, while the prospect analysis is good and bad subjectively.

2. Prospect analysis has a more scientific theoretical basis than prospect, and the prospect is mostly based on personal experience.

3. Prospect analysis is suitable for more rigorous fields, supported by specific and mature theories, and is mostly used to predict the future development of specific industries, which is long-term. Because of strong subjective judgment, the prospect is more suitable for industries with large variables in the short term, such as stocks and futures, which change rapidly, depending on personal experience and ability.