Probably not
Introduction to earthquake clouds
[Edit this paragraph]
Earthquake Cloud is a non-meteorological cloud body The classification of clouds that predict earthquakes has been relatively superficial in international research, and there is no unanimous opinion so far. There are still many researchers in Japan and China who are interested in exploring it. It is precisely because of the lack of in-depth research that seismologists and meteorologists today have one-sided denials or far-fetched explanations using meteorological theories for all issues involving earthquake clouds. We have reason to believe that with the continuous collection and analysis of data related to earthquake clouds in the future, earthquake clouds will make great contributions to the cause of earthquake prediction.
The formation of earthquake clouds
[Edit this paragraph]
1. Heat theory:
When an earthquake is about to occur, geothermal heat accumulates in the In seismic zones, a large amount of heat is generated due to intense friction between rocks under strong stress. This heat escapes from the ground surface and heats the air to generate updrafts. This airflow forms "seismic clouds" at high altitudes. The tail end of the clouds Point to where the earthquake occurred.
2. Electromagnetic theory
Before the earthquake, the rock had a "piezomagnetic effect" under the action of in-situ stress, which caused local changes in the geomagnetic field; in-situ stress caused the rock to be compressed or stretched, Causes changes in resistivity and corresponding local changes in the electromagnetic field. Due to the influence of electromagnetic waves on the high-altitude ionosphere, the plasma concentration in the ionosphere decreases sharply, causing water vapor and dust to non-freely arrange in an orderly manner and travel through earthquake clouds.
Common characteristics of earthquake clouds
[Edit this paragraph]
Cloud elevation: 6000 meters
Cloud color: white, gray , orange, orange-red
*** has characteristics: strong winds do not easily change its shape, there are clear boundaries between the sky and clouds, and waves often appear.
Occurrence time: morning and evening
Seismic cloud shape
[Edit this paragraph]
1. Single earthquake cloud: horizontal Strip-shaped clouds usually appear as single strips with distinct depths. The current view is that the shallower end is the epicenter. This kind of cloud resembles the traces left by an airplane after it flies by, so some people call it an airplane cloud. It generally indicates that there will be an earthquake in 2 weeks.
2. Multiple seismic clouds: parallel or radial clouds. For parallel multiple clouds, current observations are mostly local earthquakes; and the current view is that the epicenter of radial clouds is the direction of its arc. center of circle. These two types of clouds generally indicate an earthquake 2 to 6 days later.
3. Cirrus clouds: Clouds that are vertical like a tornado, or like vertical smoke columns when there is no wind. There is currently no statement about the epicenter, which indicates an earthquake three days later;
4. Fish-scale earthquake cloud: a loose fish-scale cloud formed from large clouds within a few hours, mostly with "Multiple earthquake clouds" appear at the same time, and the clouds have distinct depths. The current view is that the shallower end is the epicenter, indicating an earthquake 2 to 6 days later.
5. Mass seismic cloud: It is a solid-shaped large or lumpy cloud that appears at the epicenter during an earthquake. There are few existing observation records and it is considered far-fetched to define it as a seismic cloud.
Simple analysis of the detailed shape of earthquake clouds
[Edit this paragraph]
The longer the length of the earthquake cloud, the closer the time to the earthquake occurs
p>
The darker the color of the earthquake cloud, the deeper the corresponding earthquake depth
The longer the earthquake cloud lasts, the closer the corresponding epicenter
Historical records
[Edit this paragraph]
1. As early as the 17th century, ancient Chinese books recorded that "in the middle of the day or after sunset, the sky is clear, with fine clouds like A line is very long, and it is a sign of earthquake."
2. In 1935, the "Reconstruction of Longde County Chronicle" of Longde County in Ningxia, my country recorded that "the sky was sunny and warm, the blue sky was clear, and suddenly black clouds were seen like wisps, graceful like long snakes, lying across the sky , if it persists for a long time, it is bound to be an earthquake."
Newer observation records
[Edit this paragraph]
On July 27, 1976, the extremely colorful and extremely long earthquake cloud Manabe in Japan; July 28 Ritangshan magnitude 7.8 earthquake (not tested)
On May 9, 2008, Hefei's large-scale radiation band earthquake cloud; May 12 Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake (actual measurement)
On May 9, 2008, colorful earthquake clouds occurred in Tianshui; on May 12, an 8.0-magnitude earthquake occurred in Wenchuan (not tested)
On May 9, 2008, earthquake clouds of unknown shape occurred in Linyi, Shandong; on May 12, Wenchuan 8.0-magnitude earthquake (confirmed)
On May 31, 2008, a large-scale fish scale earthquake cloud occurred in Hefei; on June 1, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake in the Bashi Channel (actual measurement)
June 2008 On the 12th, Qiqihar radiation strip earthquake cloud; on June 14, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in northeastern Japan (not tested)
On June 29, 2008, a single white earthquake cloud was observed in Miyagi, Japan; on July 16 A 6.6-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Kyoto, Japan (not tested)
On August 1, 2008, a strip earthquake cloud occurred in Singapore, and a 5.3-magnitude earthquake occurred in Indonesia on August 8 (not tested)
< p>On August 4, 2008, a single earthquake cloud appeared in Juneau, United States, and on August 7, earthquakes with magnitudes 5.2 and 5.8 occurred in the Aleutian Islands (not tested)August 07, 2008 , single-bar and fish-scale earthquake clouds appeared in Anchorage, USA. A 5.5-magnitude earthquake occurred in the Aleutian Islands on August 9, and a 5.2-magnitude earthquake occurred on the 11th. (Not tested)
On August 9, 2008, fish-scale earthquake clouds appeared in Panama. On August 11, a magnitude 5.1 earthquake occurred in Sucre, Venezuela (Not tested)
August 2008 On March 10, seismic clouds of unknown shape were observed many times in Xi'an, Shaanxi, and a 4.2-magnitude earthquake occurred on the border of Xinjiang (not tested)
Research on earthquake cloud prediction
[Edit this paragraph ]
Research on seismic clouds in various countries around the world has only happened in recent years, among which my country and Japan are in the leading position. my country’s research on seismic clouds began after the Tangshan earthquake in 1976. There are currently successful examples There are more than ten, and there are hundreds of examples of Japan's successful use of earthquake clouds to predict earthquakes. Interestingly, the person who first proposed the name "earthquake cloud" was not a seismologist, but a politician. He was the former mayor of Fukuoka, Japan. Chuzaburo Kagida once personally experienced the 1956 magnitude 7 earthquake in Fukuoka, Japan, and saw with his own eyes a very peculiar cloud in the sky during the earthquake. Whenever this kind of cloud appears in the future, there will always be an earthquake, so he Such clouds are called "earthquake clouds".
On June 27, 1948, an unusual band of clouds suddenly appeared in the sky over Nara City, Japan, seeming to divide the sky into two halves. This strange cloud was seen by the mayor of Nara City at the time. On the third day, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake really occurred in the Fukui area of ??Japan. The mayor calls this kind of "ribbon-shaped", "grass rope-shaped" or "long snake-like" strange clouds "earthquake clouds" and believes that after "earthquake clouds" suddenly appear in the sky, an earthquake will occur within a few days. . The mayor's assertion is supported by meteorologists from the Faculty of Engineering of Kyushu University in Japan. At about 5 pm on January 12, 1978, the mayor's speech team in the auditorium on the fifth floor of the Nara City Chamber of Commerce and Industry suddenly saw a thin red cloud floating in the sky from the southwest to the northeast. He immediately stopped his speech. It was announced to more than 300 people attending the meeting that it was the "Earthquake Cloud"! The rising force of the cloud is very strong, and it is about to break through other cloud layers. The "earthquake cloud" sometimes appears white, sometimes black, and this time it appears red because it occurred at dusk. He estimated that a considerable earthquake will occur within two or three days. As a result, on the third day (at noon on January 14), a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred offshore Oshima, Izu Islands, south of Tokyo, Japan.
The difference in earthquake clouds
[Edited version Section]
Because the morphology of various earthquake clouds is very similar to many common cloud bodies in meteorology, it is difficult to distinguish them. Some famous meteorologists in China used classical meteorology to explain the currently known earthquake clouds as follows when the earthquake clouds were still undecided: single earthquake clouds were traces of jet planes, multiple parallel earthquake clouds, and fish scale earthquake clouds were translucent altocumulus clouds. , are flocculent altocumulus clouds, cirrocumulus clouds and multiple radial seismic clouds are cirrocumulus clouds, and lumpy seismic clouds are cumulus congestus. Since not all of these forms of clouds can be explained by meteorology, how should they be distinguished? The following are some incomplete conclusions drawn based on statistics and probability:
1. When earthquake clouds appear, they usually change form continuously over many days, rather than a fixed appearance of one earthquake cloud form.
2. A few days after earthquake clouds appear, the sky often appears completely cloudless.
3. The shapes of earthquake clouds are often inconsistent with the normal local water and gas circulation, such as "when cirrus clouds appear, the air pressure is high and the air is moderately low", "fish scale earthquake clouds and parallel earthquake clouds appear and then rain" wait.
4. Earthquake clouds mostly appear at around 6,000 meters, rather than at multiple elevations.
5. If an earthquake is accompanied by strong aftershocks, seismic clouds may appear in multiple forms at the same time.