In the market where pig prices continue to be low, retail pig farmers are also decreasing sharply. Statistics show that the number of free-range pig farmers is decreasing by about 4 million every year!
For a long time, we can really feel a large number of small and medium-sized retail investors in the country, but it is hard to say how much.
According to the known data, Zhu Duowang made the following brief analysis-
According to statistics, in 2008, the number of free-range households with an annual output of less than 500 was about 72.22 million, and in 2020, the number of free-range households decreased to 20.62 million.
In other words, in 12 years, retail pig farmers decreased by 5 1.6 million! About 4.3 million households are reduced every year!
Everyone wants to know the latest data, but the number of free-range households in 202 1 and 2022 has not been verified. However, from the scale of pig industry, the reduction of free-range households has not been greatly alleviated.
The data shows that the scale rate of pig industry in China has increased from 46.9% in 20 17 to 58% in 2022. With the continuous improvement of scale, the number of free-range farmers has decreased.
It is not difficult to see from the above figure that the market share of pig farmers with less than 500 pigs is decreasing, which shows that the number of free-range farmers is also decreasing.
Zhou Kaifeng, secretary general of the Pig Industry Branch of Shandong Animal Husbandry Association, also pointed out that "the number of small and medium-sized farmers in Shandong decreased from10.04 million in 2065,438+05 to 259,000 in 2026,5438+0, with a decrease of 75. 1%.
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Therefore, on the whole, although the national non-epidemic situation was relatively stable in 20021and 2022, the scale was still increasing rapidly, and the free-range farmers were still withdrawing due to the continued low pig prices.
For 2023, it is foreseeable that it is difficult for the pig market to have long-term high prices, and the competition in the pig industry continues to intensify; The scale field will be killed in the stable production capacity, and the free-range households will easily quit in the depressed market.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, there were 699.95 million live pigs slaughtered nationwide, an increase of 28.67 million or 4.3% over the previous year.
The annual pork output was 55,465,438+million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons or 4.6% over the previous year.
By the end of 2022, there were 452.56 million live pigs in China, an increase of 3.33 million or 0.7% over the end of last year.
Among them, there were 43.9 million fertile sows, an increase of 620,000 over the same period of last year, with an increase of 1.4%.
From the perspective of division—
First of all, although we have repeatedly said "low consumption", the national pork production has increased by 2.46 million tons. It turns out that consumers are boycotting "high-priced pork", not pork. Only when the price of pork rises sharply as in September 2022, 65438+ 10, will consumption decrease rapidly. If pork is cheap, you should eat it.
Secondly, the number of live pigs in China has also increased by 3.33 million. Although the number is not large, it can also be a good indication that the price of pigs has fallen to this point, and the stock is still increasing. The supply in 2023 will not be less than that in 2022.
The most important thing is to increase the number of sows by 620 thousand by the end of the year. On the one hand, it reflects that there will be more pigs to be slaughtered in 2023, on the other hand, it also shows that the production capacity of the pig industry tends to be stable with little fluctuation! Therefore, the pig market in 2023 will not be "ups and downs" as in 2022.
To sum up, the consumer side greatly restricts the profit of the production side, especially on the basis of a stable and sufficient supply of live pigs, the consumer side can have no scruples about "lack of meat to eat", so the upper limit of the pig price in 2023 will be lower and the fluctuation will be smaller!
Judging from the overall "meat, eggs and milk supply", in 2022, the national output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry was 92.27 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year.
The key point is that the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry eggs and milk has increased to varying degrees.
In other words, "involution" is not only the pig industry, but the whole animal husbandry! Although we often say that consumption is low, there are many cattle, sheep and chickens in the market, and consumers have more choices. At the end of 2022, there even appeared the news of "pouring milk to kill cattle", which shows that the overall competition of animal husbandry is fierce.
Therefore, in 2023, the competitive pressure of the pig industry will not be alleviated, but the pressure is the driving force. Fierce competition will force the high-quality development of the industry, but many people do not realize that there are some "costs" behind high-quality development.
The "cost" of high-quality development In fact, under the background of the rapid improvement of pig breeding level, it is not only the "survival difficulty of small and medium-sized farmers", but also the survival difficulty of pig enterprises is increasing. High-quality development is never a simple matter.
According to enterprise survey data, there are 359,500 enterprises related to pig breeding in China.
In recent five years, the number of newly registered enterprises related to pig breeding in China has shown a downward trend as a whole.
Specifically, the number of new pig enterprises from 20 18 to 2022 was 33,800, 3 15, 52,800, 24,600 and160,300 respectively.
It can be seen that the overall situation is determined as "fewer and fewer new pig enterprises", except that in 2020, a large amount of capital poured into the pig industry due to "non-plague dividends", which led to an abnormal surge in pig enterprises.
The fundamental reason for the decrease in the number of new pig-raising enterprises is that it is more difficult to survive, which leads to an increase in the overall threshold for pig-raising.
But this is not a bad thing. The higher the entry threshold of an industry, the more stable it will be.
Take raising pigs as an example. If you need one or two million or even tens of millions of funds to enter the threshold at any time, it will take at least five years of technical precipitation, so will people who run pig farms give up easily? Not really! Pig farmers will constantly improve their farming techniques in the downturn to gain survival and profit space.
This technological progress in the industry will raise the threshold for entry and form a virtuous circle.
On the contrary, if everyone can flock to an industry when the market is high and "disperse in a hubbub" when the market is low, then the overall stability and security of this industry will be low.
The typical case is the pig industry after the outbreak of non-plague The production capacity was eliminated in large quantities and then increased rapidly. As a result, the market crashed, which was very sad. ......
Therefore, we all see that although the average price of live pigs has dropped repeatedly under the trend of scale, the state is still encouraging large-scale development.
In 202 1 year, the market share of the top 20 pig enterprises in China was 2 1.4 1%! It is reported that this data has increased to 24% in 2022! This is because the scale has promoted the level of aquaculture, realized the stable supply of meat, eggs and milk, and strengthened the people's livelihood security.
But the price is also quite obvious, that is, the market share of pig enterprises is getting bigger and bigger, the industry threshold is getting higher and higher, and the competition is getting fiercer and fiercer!
It is worth reflecting that many people are still looking forward to the "pig disease bonus" brought by the "non-epidemic situation".
However, this kind of person will not think that when he is eager for the disease to invade the industry and can only survive by "profiteering pig prices", others are fully armed and constantly improve their ability to prevent diseases.
You know, the attraction of non-plague has never declined in the past four years! The strain is even mutating! But why are there fewer and fewer plagues?
It can be seen that there is no white success! Behind the high-quality development of animal husbandry, there must be some "sacrifices"-that is, sacrificing inferior production capacity, sacrificing falling technology, and sacrificing huge profits. ......
There is no denying that the truth often sounds harsh! However, whether it is a free-range farmer or a large pig-raising enterprise, the reality is that we must abandon the fantasy of "disease-driven market", "large pig-raising enterprises will close down sooner or later" and "pig price profiteering" "Disease prevention and high yield" has grown from a floating factor to an inevitable factor, and raising pigs will protect people's livelihood.
To put it simply, the pig industry in China no longer needs vaccine-free, let alone profiteering. The important thing is what else do you need to raise pigs?