"Others hand in the first draft, you hand in the first draft."
"If you can't find a job, you won't have money to earn. If you have no money to earn, you can only do waste at home. "
These "incredible" remarks come from "Female college students cry their friends' circle: it's really too difficult for graduates in 2020 ...", such as the title, this article became popular and even reprinted by official media.
The whole article is presented in the form of a cartoon. Although it is from the perspective of "female college students", the output content really hits the pain points of the majority of recent graduates.
For example, graduation thesis is a headache for all freshmen. Due to the repeated postponement of the start of school, it is a fatal blow to those students who need to rely on experiments for their graduation thesis. After all, the butterfly effect of "if you can't go back to school, you can't do experiments, you can't do experiments, you can't write papers without data, and you can't finish your studies without writing papers" is really scary.
Some people say that liberal arts students who are not burdened with experiments should be more successful. Actually, it is not. The article also describes the dilemma faced by liberal arts students-the required materials and books can only be found in the school library.
As a result, students without data and reference materials can only imagine out of thin air, fabricate out of thin air, and make things out of nothing.
What is more difficult than graduation thesis is job hunting and employment. What previous graduates are worried about is that there are so many offer, which one to choose; What this year's graduates are worried about is which one to go to "beg for food" because there are so many overpasses.
The whole language is vivid and humorous, and the style of painting is exaggerated and humorous, but everyone can feel how serious the real problems behind it are. At present, it is difficult not only for fresh graduates to write papers, but also for employers this year.
"The dust of an era falls on a person's head, which is a mountain."
This abstract and profound poem suddenly materialized in a special period.
No matter individuals or enterprises, or even the whole industry, there is a mountain to cross, especially the automobile industry, which is struggling in the cold winter.
0 1? Global supply chain closure
Before talking about the automobile industry, let's talk about the automobile supply chain. The automobile supply chain is closely related to the automobile and is very important to the automobile. It is considered as one of the most classic and remarkable manifestations of globalization.
I still remember the first time I came into contact with the concept of economic globalization, which was in the junior high school class. At that time, both teachers who taught human geography and teachers who taught economic life would quote "Ford's global production network" to help us form a preliminary understanding of economic globalization:
Auto parts come from various countries, chassis may come from Switzerland, tires may come from Belgium, heaters may come from Austria, clutches may come from France, exhausters may come from Germany, and cylinders may come from Britain. ......
The globalization of supply chain in automobile industry is a very common phenomenon now, and almost all big car companies will take this measure. Its advantages are obvious, which can enable car companies to break through geographical restrictions, realize the optimal allocation of global resources in the process of procurement and production, and improve production efficiency.
Its shortcomings are also outstanding. With the closer contact between vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers, there are hidden dangers that will affect the whole body. Even if a screw is missing, it may cause the new car to fail to go offline.
If a few parts manufacturers have problems in normal times, big car companies may still have time and space to deal with them, and there is still room for change, but in special times, the situation is different.
The situation in Wuhan in recent months has indeed had a significant and far-reaching impact on the automobile industry. We should know that Wuhan is not only an important base for Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Renault and SAIC-GM, but also a gathering place for international supply chain giants such as Bosch, Delphi, Valeo, Honeywell, Visteon and Weston.
Just one Dongfeng Avenue, with a total length of13km, along which there are 7 vehicle companies, 12 automobile assembly plants, more than 500 parts companies and 54 "Fortune 500".
SAIC-GM's Jinqiao base in Shanghai originally resumed production in late February, but because 30% of its parts were from Wuhan and could not be exported, it had to stop production again three days after the start of construction. This shows that Wuhan's economic radiation and industrial influence can not be underestimated.
Fortunately, with the help of the whole country, the spread of local epidemic in China has been basically blocked in difficult times. At this time, the epidemic has broken out on a global scale, especially in Europe and America.
Wuhan's radiation to European and American markets is as strong as its influence, even stronger.
The base camps of the above-mentioned auto parts suppliers are basically in Europe and America, so they have to streamline their business, adjust their production plans or even stop production.
For example, Bosch announced in March 18 that it would suspend its work in France, Italy and Spain or cut production; The mainland announced the suspension of production in European factories; ZF slows down or stops production in Germany; Biot suspended most European factories. ......
With the deteriorating situation, in order to cope with the declining demand, supply chain bottlenecks and personnel safety problems, more and more parts suppliers have joined the team of stopping production, further expanding the coverage, and the global automobile supply chain has come to a standstill.
02? All major OEMs have entered a stagnation period.
In a special period, the enterprises in the whole automobile industry chain can't be immune to it, and most automakers have also entered a stagnation period.
At present, Volkswagen has suspended production in European factories on a large scale or stopped production for 2-3 weeks; BMW's factory in Europe will stop production until April 19, and its factory in the United States will also be closed from April 3; Mercedes-Benz closed all European factories for 2 weeks; PSA closes all 15 factories in Europe until the end of March; General Motors closed its factories in the United States, Canada and Mexico until the end of March; Toyota has temporarily closed its factories in Europe, North America, the Philippines and Malaysia, and five factories in Japan will also be closed on April 3. ......
As mentioned above, there is a close relationship between vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers, and they are both important reasons for each other's shutdown.
The manufacturer is unable to produce because the supplier stops production and lacks parts; The supplier can't produce because the manufacturer stops production and the demand drops sharply. The "Black Swan" incident caused personnel safety problems, low consumer demand and limited travel, which made the supply and demand sides unable to dock for a while and both stopped.
For the current global automobile development trend, many authoritative evaluation agencies have put forward their own predictions. Although the data are different, the understanding is the same: a sharp drop.
This is the famous market research institute IHS? According to Markit's forecast data, in 2020, the US market sales will be lowered by 2.4 million vehicles to 6,543.8+044 million vehicles based on the original forecast, with a year-on-year decrease of at least 654.38+05.3%; The European market will decrease by 654.38+03.6% year-on-year to 654.38+056 million vehicles; The China market will decrease by 65,438+00% year-on-year to 22.4 million vehicles.
Moody's, an internationally renowned rating agency? On March 30th, it lowered its forecast of global car sales in 2020. According to the new forecast, global automobile sales will decrease by 65,438+04% in 2020, which is 65,438+065,438+0.5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast of 2.5%.
Under the bad environment, the life of major car companies is not very good.
In addition to the above-mentioned suspension of production and work, they are also facing problems such as falling stock prices, salary cuts and layoffs.
As we all know, in mid-March, US stocks experienced a record decline of 10 days and 4 fuses, and the three major auto giants in Detroit spread widely. Among them, the stock price of Fiat Chrysler Automobile Company once fell to $8.6 per share, a drop of19%; Ford's share price is as low as about $5; The decline of GM also fluctuated around 10%.
In 20 19, the cumulative global sales of Volkswagen10.97 million vehicles ranked first in the world. The large-scale and wide-ranging public are helpless in the face of the "black swan". Herbert Diss, CEO of Volkswagen Group, said in an interview with the media recently that at present, except for the China market, there is basically no revenue in other markets, and a high fixed cost of about 2 billion euros is spent every week. "If this epidemic is not effectively controlled, in order to reduce costs, it may have to lay off employees."
In the domestic market, SAIC, Weimar Automobile, BYD, Bojun Automobile, etc. They have also announced the implementation of different levels of salary reduction policies, while GAC and Great Wall Motor have lowered their car sales targets this year.
In a special period, major car companies are engaged in an unprecedented life-and-death struggle.
03? The rescue and assistance of the automobile industry.
At this time, the support of the state is particularly important and timely.
As an industry with long industrial chain, strong radiation and comprehensiveness, the automobile industry plays an important role in the economic systems of various countries.
For example, in South Korea, the number of employees in the automobile industry accounts for12% of the national labor force; In the United States, according to the data of the Ann Arbor Automobile Research Center in Michigan, if consumers don't buy new cars every seven days, the United States will lose about 94,000 jobs and 7.3 billion dollars in overall income; In France, Peugeot Citroen Group and Renault Group have always been industry leaders. Bruno lemerre, French Finance Minister, said: "The current situation is very clear, and we will not watch the big French companies and industry leaders disappear."
As a result, the rescue operations of various countries have been launched in a mighty way.
The US auto industry is actively preparing a $2 trillion economic stimulus plan and seeking federal assistance, and its government responded that "it will lend a helping hand".
The French government will take various measures, including providing 300 billion euros of government loan guarantees, providing guarantees for enterprises that need to postpone tax collection, nationalizing enterprises, and so on, to help the automobile industry tide over the difficulties.
The German government will provide liquidity support of about 654.38+05 billion euros to car companies, and even buy part or all of the shares of the company when necessary to protect local car companies from being acquired by foreign companies.
In terms of stabilizing automobile consumption, China has also issued the Notice on Supporting the Resumption of Business of Commercial Circulation Enterprises, requiring local commercial authorities to actively promote the introduction of new car purchase subsidies and automobile "trade-in" subsidies. Hangzhou has even taken measures to "loosen" the purchase restriction, and will increase 20,000 passenger cars at one time this year.
On March 26th, G20 Summit was held by video. After the summit, the communique pointed out that the G20 will launch an economic plan worth $5 trillion to cope with the negative impact of this special event on the global society, economy and finance. One of the most important points is to solve the problem of global supply chain interruption and continue to strengthen cooperation in the field of international transportation and trade.
At the same time, countries also need the support of the automobile industry.
"President Twitter" Trump called on automakers to join the field of medical supplies manufacturing on Twitter: "You must start manufacturing ventilators, and go now! Ford, get the ventilator! ! @ General Motors @ Ford Motor Company. "
General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Tesla and other car companies have all obtained the approval for the production of ventilators and responded to the national call.
In addition, many car companies around the world, such as SAIC-GM-Wuling and BYD, have rebuilt their production lines, joined the production team of protective products, and assumed the social responsibility of getting up as a company.
04? Write it at the end
A grain of ash of the times falls on the heads of car companies, which is a mountain.
In this war without smoke, the competition between car companies will be more intense and cooperation will be more frequent. Who will be the new hero in this situation? Will the heroes of the past fall because of this situation?
Too much uncertainty, on the one hand, makes global car companies fall into a dark moment, on the other hand, it will also be riveted and born in the sun.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.