On Friday, the three major A-share stock indexes collectively showed a trend of low opening and high going and then falling back. The total turnover of the two cities was 654.38+00062 billion yuan; The net purchase amount of northbound funds is 457 million yuan. Disk observation: cultural and educational leisure, coal, semiconductor and other sectors were among the top gainers; Mineral products, gas supply and heating, aviation and other sectors were among the top losers. At the close: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% to 3,447.65 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% to 13020.46 points; Growth enterprise market index fell 1.55% to 2748.64 points.
market outlook
Since last year, we have mentioned a sentence on various occasions: the medium and long-term results of this epidemic storm are still unclear, but the global political, economic and geographical pattern may change at the century level. In fact, the recent changes in the situation in Eastern Europe that have attracted global attention are essentially still a game between global economic recovery and industrial chain competition in the post-epidemic era. We insist on not talking about politics. The direct impact of regional changes on the capital market and the indirect impact of changes in supply and demand have been repeatedly explained, but the capital market will eventually return to its own operating rules.
Since the end of last year, we have mentioned three key words on various occasions: rejuvenating the country through science and technology, energy revolution and steady growth!
Rejuvenating the country through science and technology: since the "new era" was put forward at the top of 19, China's economic development has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and the core of the transformation from "quantity" to "quality" is the improvement of quality; The "new era" emphasizes the transformation of economic kinetic energy. The scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are giving birth to a new round of industrial revolution on a global scale. Advanced manufacturing industry has become an important policy force, and then internal and external environmental pressures such as Sino-US friction have pushed China to upgrade to the global value chain. Whether we can take this move well can be said to determine the future direction of China manufacturing and even China's economy.
Energy revolution: "the peak of carbon dioxide emissions will be carbon neutral by 2030 and 2060"; The energy revolution is the focus of global fiscal policy, and a national green development strategy has been formulated. It is an important support for opening the third energy revolution and the fourth industrial revolution, marking the emergence of the turning point of the green industry cycle; It is a large-scale deterministic theme during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period or even longer, which will have a revolutionary and far-reaching impact on new energy, chemical industry, construction, environmental protection and other industries. In the medium and long term, related topics have great investment opportunities.
Steady growth: after many years, in the context of the epidemic situation and changes in the global situation, in order to hedge the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the short-term and medium-term urgency of "steady economic growth" in China has greatly increased since the end of last year; The business cycle between China and the United States has begun to show a high degree of asynchronism, and China and the United States have also shown completely opposite differentiation in phased monetary policy. China still has "many cards" (regulatory policies) to play, and some previously tight investment and financial policies have begun to relax.
Operation strategy
It is worth noting that: steady growth (large financial infrastructure), energy revolution (carbon neutral and new energy) and powerful country in science and technology (large science and technology, large military industry) are more like an "impossible trinity" that needs policy balance but is difficult to balance perfectly in practice; When the short-term policy is biased towards "steady growth", the marginal of "science and technology power" and "energy revolution" may be weakened in stages, but their long-term goals will not change; Recently, it is gratifying that the main line of steady growth shows signs of spreading from the traditional cycle to new infrastructure and other growth sectors.
Zhao, chief investment consultant of GF Securities, with the license number of S02606 140600 14.