Deep thinking under the bright lights
In another year, the people of China will bid farewell to poverty as a whole.
Ma Yun said that recently 1 day, he had to receive loan calls from five friends, and within a week, 10 friends were selling houses. Compared with Ma Yun's friends, the order of magnitude of listed companies queuing to sell several suites is slightly weaker. It's really not easy for everyone. It's Sun's turn to help Wang Sicong pay his debts. Hua Dan Dilraba blew itself up for eight months, and Liu Yonghao, who made a fortune in succession, regretted that 20 19 was so difficult.
Anyway, ordinary people dare not say anything, dare not ask anything, just want to take the whole family out of poverty and run a well-off society.
Pay attention to your posture when you get rich, and don't be too conspicuous as cannon fodder. Recently, I talked with many friends about how to live in 2020, and found that the anxiety of the rich, the middle class and the bottom is completely different, and the coping strategies are also very different. That's what I want to tell you today.
Recently, I always heard that in the era of negative interest rates, the opportunity to counterattack came. In this regard, I just want to throw this picture over.
Recognize the situation clearly and give up the illusion.
In the era of low income, no class can sit back and relax.
0 120 19, it just doesn't work.
You don't know how good and strong you are to survive this turbulent year.
The flame of "yellow vest" has gone out of Paris, France, which loves revolution. The street protest movement has evolved into a global wave. Do it if you don't accept it, and you will be scared to death if you are unhappy.
The United States tore up the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and "the landmark US-Russian arms control treaty is dead", and the fairy lost control and the imp suffered at any time;
I don't know how many wars have been fought between great powers. Huawei spare tire chips all turned positive overnight, and the industrial chain was disrupted. It seems that the hook is not far away.
The neighbor next door was caught in a melee, and Japan kicked South Korea out of the "white list" of trade. We are not even interested in going to the theatre, and the road ahead of the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone is still so difficult;
The Federal Reserve 180 degree policy made a U-turn and sent out the first interest rate cut package in 10 years, which started the global interest rate cut tide. In fact, major central banks are at the end of their tether. ...
Fortunately, at the end of the year, two major time bombs of the global economy-Britain's withdrawal from the EU and Sino-US negotiations-brought good news.
At this time, only a few rational people can make us believe that human beings are still looking up at the starry sky-when astronomers captured the world's first photo of a black hole, and when Musk's Falcon heavy rocket brought human beings closer to Mars. What deserves our respect is never power or money.
"Maybe you are not interested in politics, but politics is very interested in you." Now is such a passive era.
Look what we've been through passively-
A shares once again experienced the familiar 1000 stock limit. Fortunately, the loyal leek has withstood the test and can still eat meat structurally;
At the beginning of the year, the property market walked out of a small spring and immediately turned its face. Real estate investment is like a dream, Hegang 10 suite can't be exchanged for a bathroom in Shenzhen Bay.
Both onshore and offshore RMB once broke through the psychological barrier of 7.0, and I dare not think about how much money I have.
The money for raising a national football team is not as good as raising a pig that was robbed in the animal year. However, on second thought, the surrender of the national football team is the most rare certainty in this era, and it can even bring peace and laughter to war-torn Syria.
At the beginning of the year, Wang Xing of Meituan exported a famous saying to the domestic market, which has been sung for a whole year this year. "20 19 is the worst year in the past decade, but it is the best year in the next decade." A little provocative flame is really frustrating.
What makes people feel most interesting is the prediction of Nicholas Tao Jin, the "king of bicycles". He said that 20 19 is a doomed year in the Campo cycle. When the crisis comes, global assets will fall to the lowest point. Life depends on Kangbo to get rich, so 20 19 is also one of the only three wealth opportunities in life. The first opportunity after 85, if you seize it, you can become a middle class.
It is not good for God to count his fingers. In recent years, there have been many human factors in the intervention cycle, such as Trump's election, so it has to be postponed again in the year of eternal doom. Does this mean that the opportunity to make a fortune is still waiting for us in the distance, or that the frightening 20 19 has just gradually reached its climax?
The situation is better than that of others, but "life is up to me" is popular these days, so we must keep this spirit. Ma Yun said that 20 19 is just a difficult start.
I'm still calling you to fight in 2020.
The poor just want to keep their jobs.
The elites output economic data, but the brothers and sisters of the proletariat don't care.
The poor care about the present and are sensitive to the price changes of their rice bowls.
A colleague of mine who just graduated cries every day, and now the money deposited in the bank, Yu 'ebao and Monetary Fund is completely inflation-free.
The CPI of 1 1 jumped to 4.5%, the highest since 20 12. Thanks to pork, the price rose by 1 10.2% year-on-year, driving CPI up by about 2.6 percentage points.
The price of pigs is gradually stabilizing, but other meats want to become more expensive. The meat in the restaurant is getting less and less, and the boss wants to raise the price for a day or two. Menu prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the cost of eating out will definitely rise in 2020.
The cost of living has increased, and if the monetary environment becomes more and more relaxed, the money in the hands of the poor will only be worthless.
In the 1970s, international oil prices soared and inflation in the United States was high. However, the chairman of the Federal Reserve at that time thought that the core CPI excluding oil prices had no inflation, so he went his own way and set a negative interest rate. Later, another former Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul Walker, resolutely opposed the interest rate cut. He raised the federal funds rate to 65,438+09% to end double-digit inflation.
Paul Walker believes that it is absurd for the United States, a country on wheels, to cancel the core consumer price index of oil.
History is a mirror of reality. Perhaps in the same way, for a big pork consuming country, the phrase "eliminating pork is deflation" also makes proletarian brothers and sisters face a question mark, "Dare to eat meat with this mouth open?"
The rise in pork prices affects the "eight" in the "two-eighth" effect, affecting the basic disk of society and the vast majority of ordinary people.
Yi Changyang has a good saying: "There are thousands of tricks, and it is useless to control money."
Ordinary people are anxious about inflation and worried about cutting interest rates. It is nothing more than because in the era of negative interest rates, who is the most injured, and the answer is undoubtedly the poor.
Even if I don't want to admit it, I have to admit that the era of cruel low interest rates has arrived.
A recent report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out that in the next decade, the global overall interest rate will drop to the lowest level since 5,000 years.
In the next decade, the global overall interest rate will drop to the lowest level in 5000 years.
High-yield products either have risks that life can't bear, or are thresholds that all family members can't reach, such as Bitcoin, an asset with the highest income this year and an annual increase of more than 80%. I can't afford it anyway. Excuse me.
The stock market is a "seven losses, two draws and one gain" market, and the knowledge and funds of retail investors are completely insufficient to compete with institutions.
Now the interest rate continues to fall, and the annualized rate of return of Yu 'ebao on the 7th has dropped from the high point of 6.763% in 20 14 years to 2.354% today, even the pork in the rice bowl can't be saved.
Are proletarians helpless? Don't mourn.
Colleagues recently bought several investment-related books, and the situation is changing too fast, so it is more urgent to systematically learn financial management knowledge. The financial management method she chose is fund, which can not only invest with the rich, but also has a low threshold, and can also conduct a wider asset allocation. She is a steady investment, controlling the allocation ratio of stock index funds at 10%-20%, and allocating the rest to absolute income products such as partial stock debt funds and money funds to control risks.
In fact, she has outperformed many graduates in this year's employment tide, and now there are many young people with "flexible employment". The Baidu search index of 20 19 "looking for a job" is five times the average of the past decade.
The rice bowl affects the hearts of most people.
The rich seek safety.
Only the rich care about the global political and economic situation.
They tend to take a long-term view and think about wealth planning and inheritance in the next ten or twenty years.
Inflation now is not terrible. What the rich are afraid of is future asset deflation, global economic depression and dried up profit opportunities.
The rich will be much more comfortable on the day of interest rate cut. Whoever has strong leverage is more likely to make huge profits. At this time, you can understand why President Ren called for a rate cut. Financial real estate is a win-win industry in the relaxed era.
The day of interest rate cuts is often the day when the gap between the rich and the poor widens.
However, if negative interest rates prevail, it is also a bad signal for the rich, which proves that with the economic downturn, the chances of obtaining investment income are decreasing.
If we used to chase pigs at the tuyere with high leverage, now we must prevent pigs from exploding and the tight capital chain from breaking. 20 19 years, how many rich people exploded, rich people went to prison, and rich people got old ... amazing.
On the other hand, how many points you earn is not what most rich people care about most. Rich people are not holding eggs, but many hens, as long as hens can lay eggs stably and ensure cash flow.
The richest people in this era are most anxious about the skyrocketing risks and the security of wealth.
International politics is moving towards disorder and conflicts are expanding. A member of Zhigu, who works as a family office, told me that all the high-net-worth clients he contacted in the past two years are trying to put their funds in a safer place, and this demand is more urgent than in previous years.
For example, ordinary people regard Britain's exit from the EU as a death drama, and the rich see the opportunity of bargain hunting and intensively increase their positions in London real estate. London has quickly recovered from the ruins of two world wars. This amazing and historically tested resilience is truly an international metropolis. From 1967 to now, the biggest drop in house prices in London is only 15%, and the wave caused by Britain's withdrawal from the EU is only a trivial splash in the long history. What's more, it is a foregone conclusion that Boris took Britain out of the European Union. After being digested, it brings a more certain sense of security to the rich.
Security is a scarce commodity.
In fact, the most admirable thing about the extreme measures taken by the rich to defend their assets is "returning Jia Yueting tomorrow".
After quarreling for two years, the investors who were harvested suffocated their dreams. Faraday is still not mass-produced. As for Jia Yueting himself, he successfully filed for bankruptcy, and his left hand turned to his right hand in five oceanfront mansions in the United States, and his assets were also isolated through insurance trusts and passed on to his daughter. Who else dares to disobey him?
Hens cannot be put in the same cage, which is the core investment concept of the rich.
The middle class is the most anxious.
The middle class is a sandwich. It should not only care about the present, but also consider tomorrow. It should not only calculate daily necessities, but also pay attention to international current affairs.
The poor have nothing to lose. The rich have too many hedging methods, and only the middle class can't keep up.
There are four old people to take care of in the world, and it costs money to take a baby's life track. The bald man is still carrying a mortgage, and one sickle after another outside. The investment projects are also left over after the rich have fished for a layer of oil, which is risky and has little chance. The word "midlife crisis" is born for the middle class.
The middle class is an unstable class, and the upward channel must be broken before it can enter, but the downward channel has always had a strong attraction. All the year round, we should be nervous and defend our assets.
In the past, real estate was the exclusive asset of China's middle class to fight inflation and achieve class jump.
However, in the past two years, house prices have been deeply adjusted, and the way of making money has changed greatly.
I have a friend who was planted in "making money with old ideas"
20 17 After the regulation of the first-tier property market tightened, my friend immediately bought a second-hand house in Shijingshan District of Beijing with high leverage. According to his past experience, buying a house during the regulation period is the most correct choice. This is true, but his mistake is to seriously underestimate the determination of this regulation and static observation of the great changes in Beijing's urban planning. I thought that the regulation would be released soon and house prices would rise, but until now, the second-hand houses in Beijing are still in winter.
Compared with the peak price of 20 17, his suite has fallen by more than 30%, and the down payment of one million yuan is gone.
There are too many uncertainties in the real estate investment market now.
The threshold for big cities to settle down is gradually cancelled, small and medium-sized cities are dead, and the most certain transaction threshold for big cities is increasing day by day.
China's economic model is being transformed, which means that urban industries must be deeply adjusted, and the difficulty of location selection and identification is definitely increasing. If you make money from real estate according to the old thinking in the past, you may not get a penny.
The core is that the high-level thinking has changed. In the game of great powers, China must revive its "world factory". Only when the real interest rate is reduced, most of the opportunities to make money in the real estate market are destroyed, and money is no longer siphoned in the wrong direction by real estate, will the real economy have a chance.
The time when you can close your eyes and earn money while lying in the National Games is accelerating away. What can the middle class do?
In recent months, the whole insurance industry is selling like hot cakes. In fact, the yield is 4.025%. In the eyes of the rich, evading inheritance tax, inheriting wealth or hedging the risk of borrowing are only small gains.
But it was snapped up by the market. Why? In fact, most of the snapping up are middle class. Because the downward trend of interest rates has become common sense in the market, annuity insurance can bring some benefits by locking interest rates and iron out the economic cycle. Now China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has stopped annuity insurance products with a yield of 4.025%. Therefore, the middle class is more anxious because-
The future of low income is naked in front of us.
The stock market and funds, channels where the working class, the middle class and the rich can invest, will increasingly require you to accumulate investment knowledge and have the ability to identify risks in order to avoid being cut off.
We often forget that there is no shortcut to getting rich.
Controlling risks, learning knowledge and exercising are the most practical ways to survive in this long downward cycle and identify the low point of assets.
Focus on the future and work hard.