On Wednesday, the three major indexes of A-shares were mixed at the opening, the size index was divided, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, and the index performance was slightly stronger, but they all strengthened collectively in the afternoon. The total turnover of the two cities was 889.7 billion yuan; Northbound fund closed due to typhoon. On the disk: liquor, electrical equipment, semiconductors, automobiles and other sectors were among the top gainers; Coal, oil, natural gas and electricity sectors were among the top losers. Closing day: Shanghai Composite Index reported 356 1.76 points, up 0.42%; The Shenzhen Component Index reported 14353.08 points, up1.54%; Chuangzhi reported 32 10. 16 points, up 2.29%.
market outlook
Yesterday, we boldly stated: At present, the market oversold is serious, and it is more about emotional anxiety. It is unlikely that the market will further innovate in the process of bottoming, but it may be an opportunity for the left layout. The market that bottomed out today also verified this judgment; The decline of the stock index is limited, and the market sentiment is still being repaired. However, there are still some lack of motivation and opportunities to immediately turn around and rise (for example, the turnover has shrunk by less than 900 billion); We won't go into details about the market. It is simply that sentence: "If the economy advances, the policy will retreat, and if the economy is weak, the policy will be stable; It takes time to digest the valuation of space with profits! " 10 will enter the disclosure period of the third quarterly report one after another, and the market will enter the confirmation (false) stage of stock price and performance.
In terms of industry, we also mentioned yesterday that we will continue to avoid the "big cycle" (resources, etc. ) In mid-September, we began to warn of risks and pay attention to some blue-chip sectors that are fully adjusted and have relatively low valuations, such as "big consumption". You may have noticed that the title of our concluding remarks today is almost the same as that of the 24th of last month, which is also the view we have repeatedly expressed in recent months.
In the current weak market sentiment, when funds flow out of the previous high-level track, they will of course consider flowing to defensive sectors such as liquor and medicine, and there is sufficient time and space for adjustment in the early stage; Moreover, the fourth quarter itself is the peak season for liquor consumption. Compared with last year's low base, this year's sales growth will be stronger; What's more, from the current statements and high-frequency tracking data of liquor enterprises, dealers in quite a few regions have basically completed the annual payment, continuing the trend of heavy volume, and it is expected that the third quarterly report of liquor sector should have a good performance.
Operation strategy
At present, the economic and market environment is not in the expansion cycle, so it is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair and style rebalancing of the defensive sectors of "big finance" (brokerage banks, etc.). ) or "big consumption" (alcohol, medicine and automobile education, etc. ); In the long run, we will continue to pay attention to the long-term deterministic opportunities of the concept of "big technology" (chip military industry, etc.). ) and "carbon neutrality" (new energy, etc. ).
Zhao, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, has the practice certificate number S02606 140600 14.