The market is short of oil, but the stock is sufficient.
Our reporter visited and found that due to the emergency of diesel supply, almost all private gas stations in Guangzhou hung up the sign of "no diesel for the time being", while the gas stations under Sinopec and PetroChina stopped supplying diesel from time to time, and many trucks lined up to add diesel, even causing traffic jams on some sections.
At the same time, Shenzhen, Foshan, Zhongshan and other places have also experienced different degrees of diesel shortage. Most private gas stations around the country have no diesel oil supply, and the oil products are mainly supplied by Sinopec and PetroChina, which are limited in supply.
The inversion of oil prices at home and abroad is the main reason.
Regarding the current shortage of diesel oil, relevant persons from the Power and Energy Department of the Guangdong Provincial Economic and Trade Commission analyzed that this year, due to the snowstorm, the power gap was large, and the demand for refined oil recovered faster than in previous years; At the same time, the demand for refined oil is strong.
At the same time, the international oil price reached a new high, breaking through the 1 10 USD/barrel mark. The prices at home and abroad are seriously upside down, refineries are losing money in processing, and local small refineries basically stop processing.
In this regard, it is an indisputable fact that import, wholesale and retail prices are upside down. Joo Won?, deputy general manager of China Petrochemical Group, said during the "two sessions" that when the price of crude oil was 100 USD/barrel, China Petrochemical Group lost as much as 2,000 yuan per ton of gasoline sold/kloc-0, and the loss of diesel oil sold was higher than that of gasoline.
However, Yao Daming, director of the Oil Department of Guangdong Oil and Gas Chamber of Commerce, believes that another important reason for this wave of diesel shortage is that the market's expectations for price adjustment are generally high.
"Either adjust or not adjust, the policy is not clear at all, and everyone is speculating." Yao Daming said. Recently, the international crude oil price once exceeded 1 10 USD/barrel, which made the market generally believe that the oil price will rise in the near future. There are even market rumors that the two major groups have applied to the National Development and Reform Commission to raise the price of refined oil.
Yao Daming said that the psychological expectation of the market for the price increase of refined oil products is causing more and more oil operators to deliberately hoard oil, and social gas stations have reduced diesel consumption.
In fact, before the last price adjustment of refined oil products, there was a similar shortage of oil products in Guangdong. From last year1October 165438+ the National Development and Reform Commission informed the price of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene to increase by 500 yuan per ton. Before the announcement of this price adjustment, the shortage of oil products in cities in the Pearl River Delta far exceeded this time.
Sinopec Guangdong Company even reminded that the national price department has made it clear that coal, electricity and oil will not be adjusted in the near future, and consumers should not panic about price increases, leading to blind snapping up oil products.
Sinopec: The supply shortage is being solved.
According to media reports, the supply of diesel oil in the eastern coastal areas and southern areas is generally tight recently, and the supply of diesel oil in Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Shaoxing, Nanning, Yulin, Wuhan and other 12 cities is in a hurry. In this regard, many people from Sinopec Group told China Business News that this situation is being resolved in a coordinated manner.
According to the reporter, the supply of Sinopec Group has been growing recently. Take Sinopec Guangdong Petroleum Company as an example. From/kloc-0 to March this year, China Petrochemical Guangdong Petroleum Branch will put more than 3.5 million tons of resources into the Guangdong market, an increase of 400,000 tons over the same period last year, with an increase of 1 2.8%.
An insider of the company said that the proportion of the company's retail sales increased by 565,438+0,000 tons compared with the same period of last year, with an increase of 265,438+0.5%. "In particular, in March, the resources will be 6.5438+0.25 million tons, up by 270,000 tons and 265,438+0.7% respectively compared with February, in which the retail volume will increase by 220,000 tons and 27% respectively, in an effort to stabilize the supply of refined oil market."
In addition, before March 15, the diesel oil delivered to Guangxi by Sinopec Guangxi Petroleum Branch increased by 87.45% compared with the same period of February and 40.26% compared with the same period of last year, both reaching the highest level in the same period of history.
At present, as far as the Shenzhen market is concerned, the total amount of gasoline and diesel supplied to the local area every day is about 8,000 tons, which is about 10% ~ 15% higher than usual. Among them, the inventory of diesel oil is 10 ton, and the recent arrival is 2 tons.
The relevant person in charge of Sinopec Shenzhen Petroleum Branch told the media that the inventory of gasoline and diesel in Shenzhen is more than 15 days, so it is no problem to ensure the supply of diesel in Shenzhen local market. Sinopec Shenzhen Petroleum Company has increased the supply of gasoline and diesel in Shenzhen market, which is about 10%~ 15% higher than usual.
Since the stock is sufficient, why can't we refuel? Sinopec Guangdong Petroleum Branch analyzed to China Business News that at present, due to the general suspension and restriction of supply of social gas stations, social consumption has shifted to the two major groups in a large area, which has led to increased supply pressure of the two major groups.
Therefore, Guangdong Petroleum Branch ensures uninterrupted supply of subordinate gas stations. However, due to the limitation of tank capacity and vehicle capacity, in order to ensure that all passing vehicles can refuel, gas stations have to take quantitative refueling measures at individual road sections and individual time periods, and queuing for refueling occurs from time to time. At present, the company's oil depots, docks and special railway lines operate 24 hours a day, so that resources can be delivered to the supply lines in time, and they can be loaded and unloaded as they arrive.
Li Anxi, general manager of Maoming Petrochemical, also said that despite the huge refining losses, he still tried his best to increase the diesel output that the market was in short supply. Maoming Petrochemical is maintaining a monthly processing capacity of 165438+ 10,000 tons to10.2 million tons, and processing about 36,000 tons of crude oil every day, exceeding the design capacity. In terms of diesel equipment, the company also maintains the maximum load operation of two sets of delayed coking units with 6,543.8+0,000 tons/year, so as to keep the monthly diesel output above 400,000 tons. At the same time, the company reduced its inventory, reduced the inventory of diesel semi-finished products by nearly 30,000 tons, and increased the supply of diesel in the market.
People from the Guangdong Oil and Gas Chamber of Commerce also said that Hainan's local oil and gas supply is sufficient, and the local area is also transporting more oil products to Guangdong through refined oil pipelines to ensure the supply of the Pearl River Delta.
Is the oil shortage really coming?
Diesel shortage reappears in some areas, and Sinopec and PetroChina are still not satisfactory in the process of ensuring supply. Is the oil shortage really coming? In fact, it is precisely because the international diesel price is upside down and the two major groups protect social resources that it is difficult to refuel in some parts of the south in recent years.
Of course, the reason is not limited to this. Due to snowstorm and power shortage, power plants in various places, including oil-fired power plants, have begun to increase horsepower production. A Guangdong oil and gas industry insider said that the government is now granting subsidies to oil-fired power plants to ensure the local power supply in Guangdong. In addition, this stage is in the spring ploughing season, and the supply of diesel oil has also begun to increase, laying the foundation for the shortage of resources.
At the same time, the shortage of refined oil allocation and transportation capacity, the shortage of refined oil in some cities, and the excessive supply pressure on its surrounding areas are also one of the realistic reasons for the shortage of refined oil supply during this period.
However, China's two largest listed companies, China Petrochemical and China Petroleum, including refining business, have both increased their output and supply of refined oil in the past two years.
Last year, Sinopec's domestic total sales of refined oil products reached 1. 1.939 million tons, an increase of 6.9%, of which retail sales increased by 6 1.8%, reaching 76.62 million tons. The output of diesel oil was 60.08 million tons, up by 3.84%, and the processing capacity of crude oil increased by 6.33%, reaching 654.38+55.58 million tons.
PetroChina's indicators in 2007 also hit a record high. Last year, 824 million barrels of crude oil were processed, an increase of 4.9% over the previous year. It produced 22.02 million tons of gasoline, 2.02 million tons of kerosene and 47.35 million tons of diesel oil.
Then, why is there a phenomenon that the supply of refined oil gas stations is in short supply in China? In fact, in addition to the above factors, the high crude oil price has once again made people see the chronic disease of the refined oil pricing mechanism.
Of course, the relevant departments hope to reduce the cost of gasoline and diesel by stabilizing prices, but another problem is that a large number of refineries are losing money.
Although it can be seen from PetroChina's annual report last year that the losses in its refining business have been decreasing, this is the performance in the case of low crude oil prices in the first half of last year. The performance of PetroChina and Sinopec in the first and second quarters of this year is worrying.
Crude oil prices are high, and the average gap between domestic refined oil prices and international refined oil prices may be around 1500 yuan/ton at present, and it almost exceeds 2,000 yuan/ton at the peak.
The two major oil companies lose money to ensure the retail supply of domestic refined oil and refine oil. In contrast, local small refineries basically stop processing refined oil because of the high price of crude oil, and only sell a small amount of fuel oil that can reach the market price at a high level.
This has caused PetroChina and Sinopec to be reluctant to sell refined oil under the condition of tight resources. Because if a large number of refined oil products are sold, it is expected that domestic refined oil products will be adjusted soon, the profits of oil merchants will be enlarged, and the possibility of hoarding oil will increase, which will inevitably cause further panic in the market.
Simply put, the current profit per ton of oil is about 100 yuan. According to the domestic practice of several refined oil adjustments, if the 500 yuan is raised per ton, the refined oil traders will earn more price difference. But when they get more resources, it will be a test of social supply.