China, a securities times broker, noted that the strategy reports released by several fund companies this week showed that the biggest drag of recent public offering judgment on the market came from the outflow of funds from the north. Considering that many institutions have started to raise their expectations for the domestic economy, the outflow of foreign capital may be coming to an end, and it is expected that the market with substantially revised valuations of A shares and Hong Kong stocks will have more valuable bargain-hunting opportunities.
Many fund companies emphasize that industries with few institutional investors and valuations at the bottom of history are significantly more resilient.
Maintain high positions, strong and weak roles or swaps of US stocks and A shares.
A shares fell below 3000 points, which dealt a great blow to the confidence of fund holders. But for fund companies with long-term professional operation ability in the market, this may be a repeat of the reverse bargain-hunting opportunity brought by pessimism. The top US stocks and A-shares hovering at the bottom may bring about the role exchange of strong and weak patterns.
The report issued by China Europe Fund, when analyzing the recent stock market trend, holds that the US restrictions on the export of chips and semiconductor equipment related to China once again exceed market expectations against the background of rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. While the Fed is gradually entering the "tail end of raising interest rates", the market's concerns about domestic policy space are expected to gradually ease. Although the duration of the "end of interest rate hike" is uncertain, it is expected that the change from the interest rate height to the length of time is itself an improvement. We need to pay attention to the marginal disturbance of global inflation caused by new geopolitical changes such as the Middle East, and the potential rise of risk aversion after intense expansion. The risk premium difference between Chinese and American stock markets will gradually return to the average after hitting a new high of 20 15, which may be realized by the decline of US stocks or the rise of domestic market, and will become one of the driving forces for A-shares to outperform overseas markets.
Some fund people also believe that when the market falls sharply to the extreme, they should maintain a high stock position.
Zhang, general manager of southern fund Stock Investment Department, also stressed that the improvement of economy, the continuous accumulation of policies and the easing of Sino-US relations are expected to reverse the trend of market sentiment from quantitative change to qualitative change. When it comes to investment strategy, because most industries lack obvious bright spots, the significance of judging individuals is far greater than the forecast index. After the third quarterly report, we will make some adjustments to the portfolio positions, hoping to lay out some assets in advance for next year. Because the liquidity of many stocks is not sufficient, fund managers should make adjustments in advance. In this process, phased shareholding may be more dispersed because of maintaining high positions.
Foreign shipments have come to an end, and the entry of long-term funds is imminent.
The outflow of foreign capital has come to an end, which will also provide an opportunity for switching market opportunities and bargain-hunting.
"The biggest drag on the market recently comes from the outflow of funds from the north. Considering that many institutions have begun to raise their expectations for the domestic economy, the outflow of foreign capital may be coming to an end. " Morgan Stanley fund sources said that with the gradual improvement of the economy and the continuous introduction of policies, the A-share market is currently very cost-effective.
The above-mentioned fund companies stressed that the current market problems mainly come from the capital side, and the US bond interest rate is the anchor of global risk asset pricing. The rapid rise in the interest rate of US debt has brought great pressure to the global capital market, and the upward movement of denominator has reduced the valuation of risky assets, which has led the market to see the global stock market generally fall. Of course, the decline in risk appetite is also an important reason for the market decline. Geopolitical conflicts have exceeded expectations and there are some signs of spillover. It is impossible to judge how geopolitical conflicts will be interpreted in the future, but in the short term, the risk premium will definitely rise and the global capital market will fluctuate. However, on the other hand, we can see that China's GDP reached 28.68 trillion yuan in the third quarter, up 4.9% year-on-year. The cumulative growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, exceeding market expectations. Only the growth rate of 4.4% in the fourth quarter can achieve the annual growth target of 5%, so it can be judged that the annual economic growth target will be achieved as scheduled. But it is the third quarterly report that suppresses the market in the short term. We expect the third quarterly report of A shares to improve. However, judging from the companies that recently announced the third quarterly report, the bottom of profits is expected to be delayed by one quarter, that is, from the perspective of growth rate, the inflection point will not be seen until the fourth quarter. Therefore, from the rhythm point of view, it is expected that after the third quarterly report, the suppression of fundamentals will come to an end, and the fourth quarter will face a low base, the price index is expected to remain stable, and the probability of performance improvement is greater.
E Fund also believes that with the gradual implementation of various steady growth policies, the domestic economy as a whole has shown a good trend of accelerating recovery, and the new and old economic growth momentum has been smoothly switched. On the one hand, traditional industries, including the real estate industry, have gradually stabilized and rebounded; On the other hand, the demand of emerging industries represented by semiconductors, consumer electronics and new energy vehicles continues to be strong, and the investment and output of high-end manufacturing industries are growing rapidly. However, the international economic and political environment is still complex and changeable. Inflation is high in important overseas economies and interest rates remain high. International capital flows have a certain impact on the domestic capital market. However, under the background of difficult stock selection, leading companies with large market capitalization have settled down one after another and become the backbone of index market value and profit, thus enhancing the overall stability of the index and enhancing investors' investment experience and long-term shareholding confidence to a certain extent.
Domestic demand and science and technology are the keys to grasp the rebound and choose low allocation of institutions.
In the specific direction of stock selection strategy, fund companies are generally optimistic about the elastic sector with large decline and less institutional allocation.
Morgan Stanley fund people stressed that it is a good time to lay out high-quality companies, and keep optimistic about the technology sector that is in line with scientific and technological self-reliance and really benefits from the rapid development of the AI industry, the high-end manufacturing sector with high prosperity and continuous overweight policy, and the pharmaceutical sector with steady growth in performance.
Especially on the liquor track, Su, the research and management department of the above-mentioned fund company, believes that the liquor industry has entered the stock age, and the Matthew effect is obvious. Since 20 16, the output of Chinese liquor has been declining continuously. In 2022, there were 963 liquor enterprises above designated size in China, a decrease of 39% compared with 20 16. However, with the upgrading of consumption, the production resources are concentrated in famous liquor enterprises, and the sales income and profits of liquor enterprises above designated size are growing steadily. In 2022, the accumulated liquor sales revenue was 662.7 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, and the accumulated profit was 220.2 billion yuan, up 29% year-on-year. 20 A-share liquor listed companies * * * realized income of 356.3 billion yuan, accounting for 53.8% of the income of enterprises above designated size; Compared with 20 16, it increased by 27. 1%, * * realized a net profit of130.5 billion yuan, accounting for 59.3% of the profits of enterprises above designated size, and increased by10.5% compared with 2016. Although the liquor industry is still in a new round of destocking cycle, the leading liquor can always span every cycle, becoming stronger and stronger in the baptism of the industry, and its value is constantly hitting new heights. Judging from the valuation, at present, the quantiles of price-earnings ratio of liquor (CITIC) in 3-year, 5-year and 10-year are 0.4%, 0.5% and 35% respectively, which is in a low historical valuation position, and there is still much room for improvement, with outstanding allocation value. And liquor leaders with excellent brands, products and channels will be killed by mistake in the downturn of the industry, or provide better opportunities for bargain hunting.
China-Europe fund is optimistic about the offensive elastic portfolio. If the subsequent elasticity of the economy is further enhanced, domestic consumption will become a better offensive combination; On the contrary, science and technology will be more beneficial in the context of continued weak economic recovery. As the time for further economic improvement is still uncertain, the dumbbell strategy based on domestic demand and technology at this stage is more secure. We can pay attention to the following industries: first, cyclical industries with low valuation, high sensitivity to economic recovery and high cash value, which are more popular under the background of low interest rates (such as real estate, steel, non-bank finance); Secondly, the alternative consumption and pharmaceutical industries (such as household appliances, food and beverage, medical biology) with high safety margins have been greatly adjusted; Finally, cyclical industries (such as electronics and computers) are characterized by upward inflection points, as well as new energy sources with cost-effective valuation in the science and technology sector.
A number of foreign-funded institutions have voiced that the China stock market may have bottomed out, and China's assets have ushered in a window period. Many foreign-funded institutions have heavy positions, and the new ETF institutions are optimistic about the market prospects and firm layout! The valuation of A shares by foreign investors has been very attractive.