For this survey, RealData said that there is no uniform standard for the definition of vacant houses at home and abroad. The scope of this survey does not include future housing and existing housing for sale. RealData mobilizes senior brokers who have worked for 3 years or more to conduct a thorough investigation of about 30,000 residential quarters within its business scope, defines houses that have been unoccupied for more than 3 months as "vacant houses", and uses the formula of "number of vacant houses/total households" to get the city where the vacancy rate of houses is located.
Overall, the average housing vacancy rate of 28 selected large and medium-sized cities is 12%, which is in a high range. From 2065438 to 2007, CICC issued "Several Opinions on China's Housing Stock", pointing out that the narrow vacancy rate of urban housing in China is 12. 1%, which is close to the overall data of RealData at present. Generally speaking, if the housing vacancy rate exceeds 10%, we must be vigilant, and the potential risks cannot be ignored.
According to the survey results of RealData, the average vacancy rate of first-tier cities in housing vacancy rate is 7%, second-tier cities are 12%, and third-tier cities are 16%. However, the vacancy rate data of Nanchang, the second-tier capital city, is unusual, which is not only higher than the average vacancy rate of third-tier cities, but also 8 percentage points higher than that of second-tier cities.
In fact, compared with other statistical standards, the vacancy rate of RealData is low, because this statistic only selects existing houses that have been sold. In addition to the sold inventory, Nanchang has a large number of new commercial housing inventory.
According to the data of Ke Rui Research Center, by the end of June this year, the total inventory of commercial housing in Nanchang has reached more than 80 million square meters, which is also in the forefront of large and medium-sized cities in China. Inventory in a broad sense here includes commercial housing that has been approved for pre-sale, housing that has started without sales license, and general construction land that has not started.
According to 202 1 statistical bulletin of national economic and social development in Nanchang, the per capita housing construction area of local urban residents is 38.47 square meters. According to this calculation, the generalized inventory of existing commercial housing in Nanchang is enough for 2.08 million new people to live in. In addition, the built-up area of Nanchang has increased from 208 square kilometers to 366 square kilometers in the past decade, with an increase of 76%.
However, according to the data of Nanchang Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the permanent population of Nanchang has increased by 6.5438+0.35 million in the past ten years, and the registered population has increased by 360,000. The ten-year growth rate of resident population is only 26.5%. It can be seen that Nanchang has the problem that the construction speed is much faster than the population growth rate.
RealData believes that once the vacancy rate of commercial housing is too high, when the purchase restriction is relaxed, there will be a surge in newly listed second-hand housing. According to multi-agency data, the number of second-hand houses listed in Nanchang has exceeded 60,000 sets. In the first half of this year, the monthly turnover of second-hand houses was about 1230 sets, and the second-hand house decontamination cycle reached 48 months.