On the last day of May, Shanghai Pudong launched the "Smart Energy Double Carbon Cloud Platform" to develop and apply low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative-carbon technologies and create a "Double Carbon" demonstration zone.
10 days ago, Zhejiang Province held a conference on promoting carbon neutrality of peak carbon dioxide emissions, comprehensively deployed and promoted carbon neutrality of peak carbon dioxide emissions, and proposed "making more contributions to the country's realization of carbon neutrality of peak carbon dioxide emissions, being brave as a pioneer and creating important landmark achievements".
He Jiankun, deputy director of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change in China, believes that for China, the earlier the peak time of carbon dioxide emissions is, the lower the peak emissions will be, which will be more conducive to achieving the long-term goal of carbon neutrality. At present, the most important thing is to control and reduce the increment of carbon dioxide emissions, promote carbon emissions to peak as soon as possible, and quickly turn into a downward trend, continuously reduce the total emissions, and embark on a long-term carbon-neutral development path.
It is worth noting that at present, some places are anxious about the peak of carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. Some enterprises have started the concept marketing of peak carbon dioxide emissions, and even some areas have "broken pots and broken falls" in an attempt to "climb the peak" and "rush to the peak" by using the peak carbon dioxide emissions, which has the wrong idea of developing industries with high energy consumption and high emissions.
So, how should we know the peak of carbon dioxide emissions? How can carbon emissions really peak and then increase? What should I do? Are the peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality expected to be realized ahead of schedule? What efforts and even costs are needed?
Around these problems, domestic first-line climate, energy and economic experts have given some thoughts.
With regard to "double carbon", academia and industry often mention the peak of carbon dioxide emissions. In the 1990s, a big European country planned to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, which took 60 years, while China only took 30 years. Whether this process can be stable and safe is an arduous task.
According to Li Junfeng, the first director of China National Center for Strategic Research and International Cooperation on Climate Change and the director of the academic committee, the carbon emission target of "3060" does have challenges, which need to be achieved with efforts, but it is not necessarily arduous efforts.
Li Junfeng reminded that in order to correctly understand the goal of peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality, we must first realize that this goal is not a whim decision, but a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee after careful consideration.
From the policy point of view, from 1992 to 1994, the former State Planning Commission and the State Environmental Protection Agency conducted a study on "China's greenhouse gas emission problems and control strategies", and put forward three main greenhouse gas emission reduction measures to the central government, namely, improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energy and increasing forest carbon sinks.
In 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a study on formulating a national plan to address climate change, which not only provided technical support for the State Council to issue the National Plan to Address Climate Change in China in 2007, but also provided support for China to propose emission reduction measures for the first time in 2009.
In 20 13, the state launched the Macro-strategic Study on Low-carbon Development in China in 2050, and put forward the overall goal of the state to deal with climate change in 2030, as well as the macro-strategic vision and technical path of low-carbon development in the middle of this century.
In 20 16, the research on the national low-emission development strategy was launched, which basically formed the national overall low-emission strategy in the middle of this century, that is, the goal of carbon neutrality.
By 2020, China will begin to deploy research on peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality, and put forward the target, technical path and road map.
From the industrial point of view, in the past 30 years, a number of brand-new technologies such as artificial intelligence technology, energy technology, transportation technology, environmental protection technology, biotechnology, internet technology and carbon sink technology have emerged continuously, and technological progress has promoted the continuous upgrading of industrial development.
Especially after the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the excessive growth of carbon emissions in China was effectively curbed during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, carbon dioxide emissions in some provinces and cities have reached the peak or near the peak.
"We have come step by step, and each period has corresponding policies and industrial accumulation." Li Junfeng believes that China's move towards carbon neutrality is the result of historical inheritance. Without these historical heritages, the peak of carbon dioxide emission and the goal of carbon neutrality will not suddenly appear. "Carbon neutrality is a trend, and everyone must follow this direction."
Although all regions are actively promoting the goal of "double carbon", there are still some local governments who are nervous and anxious: what is the real peak of carbon dioxide emissions? What if you think it peaked and then grew?
The peak of carbon dioxide emission in Europe is a natural process, and what is the peak of carbon emission can only be obtained after the event. According to the data of BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook published by BP, the carbon emissions of the European Union reached the highest in the late 1970s, and the major European countries reached the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in the 1990s. After 10 years, it began to decline slowly, and now it is about to enter the stage of rapid decline.
The situation in China is different from that in Europe. The timetable for the peak emission of carbon dioxide is artificially set. Logically, if we want to buy time for carbon neutrality, we need to advance the peak date of carbon dioxide emissions. However, at present, the overall carbon emissions in China are still in the climbing stage and have not peaked. What is unknown is that some areas have formed a phobia of carbon dioxide emission peaks.
Li Junfeng thinks this anxiety is unnecessary.
The reason for supporting this statement is that during the period from 20 12 to 20 16, China's carbon dioxide emissions showed negative growth. After deducting the data adjustment of 20 1 1 and the rebound of 20 18 and 20 19, the carbon dioxide emission of China increased in 20 168.
"The peak of carbon dioxide emissions is just a process and an inflection point. After reaching the peak, there will still be some fluctuations, including small growth and decline, so don't worry too much. " Li Junfeng believes that from the perspective of energy consumption growth, most provinces in China have reached an inflection point, and Hainan, Shenzhou and other provinces and cities can start to discuss carbon neutrality.
Now that some provinces and cities have reached or approached the peak, is it expected that the peak of carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality will be realized ahead of schedule?
Lin, dean of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, believes that it was conservatively estimated that the peak of carbon dioxide emissions could be achieved in 2025 or 2026, but according to the current growth trend of China, it should be one or two years ahead of schedule, but it is still difficult to judge how much it will reach the peak of net emissions.
"It still depends on the economic trend in recent years, which is complementary to the economy. If economic growth is not accurately judged, it is difficult to judge the high point. In addition, we must take into account the recent industrial restructuring. These are all uncertain factors. " Lin said to.
At the same time, in order to achieve the goal ahead of time, some crooked ideas and practices at this stage should also be abandoned.
In Li Junfeng's view, it is not necessarily difficult to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in advance, and it is necessary to break through the defense line to stop one or two projects; Backward areas should prevent "broken cans and broken falls" and improve the emission level. "The peak emission of carbon dioxide must be related to the goal of stabilization, decline and carbon neutrality."
Du Xiangwan, academician of China Academy of Engineering, deputy director of the National Energy Advisory Expert Committee and honorary director of the National Climate Change Expert Committee, reminded that some places should be prevented from using the peak of carbon dioxide emissions to "climb the peak" and "rush to the peak", to prevent the impulse to develop industries with high energy consumption and high emissions, and to seize the opportunity of industrial adjustment and point to high-quality development.
"The 14th Five-Year Plan is a window period and a key period to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions. During this period, 70%-75% of China's regional carbon emissions can reach the peak, thus successfully achieving the peak target by 2030. " Li Junfeng said.
About 50 years ago, the United States started an energy innovation revolution and vigorously developed photovoltaic and hydrogen energy. The European Union has also begun to accelerate the research on carbon emission reduction technologies and mechanisms by awakening people's power. Japan has also continuously increased investment in scientific research and development and personnel training in energy planning, and devoted itself to the creation and innovation of disruptive technologies.
From the practice of these countries, the peak of carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality seem to be environmental problems to deal with climate change, but in fact they are related to the development of systematic economic and social changes. It involves not only the upgrading of energy structure, but also the transformation of growth mode and lifestyle, which is related to the high-quality development of the national economy and an important force to promote the country's transformation from resource-dependent to technology-dependent
In this sense, China's current carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutrality goal are by no means environmental competition in a simple sense, but a new round of scientific and technological innovation competition and green innovation competition.
"All problems can be solved through innovation, so we must improve our innovation ability, including technological innovation and institutional innovation." Li Junfeng said.
At the same time, all national will and national efforts will ultimately be implemented by local governments. The same is true for peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.
Many experts believe that in order to achieve the goal of peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality on time or even ahead of schedule, on the one hand, it is inseparable from the first practice and exploration of key carbon emission regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.
Taking Hainan as an example, we can rely on the flexibility of our own policies to lay out infrastructure such as transportation power and highway charging piles, and at the same time make efforts in the fields of new energy photovoltaic, offshore wind power and nuclear power.
For example, the Yangtze River Delta region with the most complete photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain, the largest output and the most concentrated enterprises and talents can reduce coal consumption, expand the market by application, accelerate the construction of world-class low-carbon industrial clusters, and build a number of high-carbon enterprises and pilot demonstration projects of decarbonization technology.
Through the experience of these areas, we can find ways to achieve carbon neutrality, which can accumulate experience for carbon neutrality in the future. Of course, this also includes central enterprises and large enterprises taking the lead in exploring the road of transformation.
On the other hand, according to the comparative advantages of space, location, energy resource endowment and industrial layout, the functions of different regions in development, resources, energy and industry should be optimized, and policies should be formulated in different categories to promote the gradual peaking of carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.
For example, we can consider asking the central and eastern regions to take the lead in reaching the peak, leaving room for development in the western and backward regions; Encourage conditions or create conditions to reach the peak in advance and allow backward areas to reach the peak after 2030.
Furthermore, grasp the main contradictions and push the industry to the peak in turn. For example, let the industrial industry take the lead in reaching the peak, especially in high-emission fields such as steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum. Construction and transportation can peak around 2030, and individual industries can peak after 2035.