What you take away from here in winter will be returned to you in spring.
The "surprise attack" of the new coronavirus pneumonia has made this poem by Heinrich Heine almost become a piece of chicken soup for the soul. However, for those working in China's automobile industry, even if they eat chicken soup, the cold winter in China's automobile market still makes people shiver -
According to the latest issue of China's automobile market released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Sales data shows that China's automobile production and sales in January 2020 were 1.783 million and 1.941 million units respectively, down 33.5% and 27% respectively from the previous month, and down 24.6% and 18% respectively from the same period last year.
So far, China’s auto market has experienced year-on-year sales declines for 19 consecutive months. The cold data seems to be announcing the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers’ announcement that “the auto industry in 2020 will end the in-depth adjustment in 2019 and will continue to expand in the next few years.” The prediction that China will gradually recover in 2020 may be an extravagant hope.
This recognition of reality feels like pouring cold water on the faces of all industry insiders - when major car companies are preparing to face difficulties, they often do not expect that difficulties will take this form. way to come. Of course, since the epidemic began to break out after January 20, the impact on January’s auto market sales will be limited, but it will have a greater impact on the February auto market and even the subsequent auto market in 2020. According to the China Automobile Association, the epidemic will have a greater impact on the auto market. The impact of the industry is mainly reflected in the following five aspects (briefly described below):
(1) The demand for car purchases and consumption capacity have declined significantly in the short term
In order to prevent the epidemic from worsening further, consumers Self-isolation at home has greatly reduced consumers' short-term car buying behavior and seriously affected car sales. This factor will continue until the first-level response to the epidemic is lifted, and the impact will continue.
The "spread" of the epidemic on the catering, film and television and other industries will also affect the income of relevant employees, thereby affecting the demand for redemptions in first- to third-tier cities, and the demand for first-time car purchases in rural areas such as cities and towns below fourth-tier . In addition, since 2018, low- and middle-income groups have been hit by multiple impacts. Before they could recover, they were hit again by the epidemic. This further weakened the spending power of this group of consumers, thereby affecting the sales of cars in the short term. overall consumer demand.
(2) Enterprise production progress is hindered
Affected by the epidemic, all parts of the country have issued notices to postpone the resumption of work. Most areas also require personnel to return to their workplaces and observe at home, further delaying the The pace of resumption of work has caused insufficient productivity of enterprises and affected product manufacturing. In short, the epidemic has had a huge impact on automobile factories and supply chains.
(3) Are enterprises experiencing increasing difficulties in exporting?
The pneumonia epidemic caused by the new coronavirus has been listed as a "public health emergency of international concern" by the World Health Organization. Some countries and companies have refused to accept ordered goods and canceled original orders on the grounds of preventing the spread of the epidemic. In addition, due to the imposition of entry control measures by some countries on our country, our country's automobile companies have been hindered from exploring overseas markets, making it more difficult to export automobiles and parts. In addition, the production progress of car companies is hindered, which will also have a negative impact on the company's subsequent order signing.
(4) The hidden danger of the capital chain of small and medium-sized enterprises being broken is increasing
Affected by the delay in resumption of work, the production and operations of automobile companies have been suspended, and their income and cash flow have been interrupted. In addition, rent, wages, and interest Other expenses still need to be paid, which greatly tests the financial strength of the company. In addition, business interruption may lead to breach of orders and contracts, exacerbating difficulties in capital turnover, and some small and medium-sized enterprises (mainly parts and components companies) with smaller size and weak ability to resist risks will face bankruptcy.
(5) It is significantly more difficult for companies to cope with standards and regulations
Affected by the negative impact of the epidemic on production and sales, it is difficult for car companies to digest existing standards before the implementation of relevant standards (National VI emission standards, etc.) Inventory (products, parts). The repeated delays in the resumption of work of testing institutions and test sites will also delay the company's product certification cycle, thereby delaying the product launch time. Combined with the low efficiency of the company's start-up, it may eventually lead to some companies being unable to implement the standard. Sales of new products as planned.
The sudden epidemic has cast a haze on the lives of ordinary people and the recovery of the automobile industry, but opportunities often come with challenges. As long as you have a sensitive enough market sense, The epidemic can also be a "springboard" to help car companies overcome many difficulties. So after talking about the challenges of the epidemic to the automobile industry, let's talk about the opportunities that the epidemic can bring to the automobile industry:
(1) ) Enthusiasm for buying private cars will increase after the epidemic
There is no doubt that the epidemic will affect car transactions in the short term, but long-term rigid demand will definitely be released - the contagious epidemic will make consumers Fear of public transportation such as subways, buses, and even online ride-hailing will indirectly stimulate the market's demand for private cars and accelerate or advance consumers' car purchase plans.
(2) Epidemic. It will have a certain promotion effect on automobile sales in the central and western regions
The epidemic will cause the central and western markets to experience a strong real estate squeeze effect in the early stage, thereby indirectly promoting the growth of vehicle demand, which will have a negative impact on automobile sales in this region. There is a certain promotion effect.
In addition, SUV products are currently the main models for household consumption and are also the first choice models with strong road adaptability in the central and western regions. The epidemic will promote the sales of SUVs to a certain extent.
(3) The epidemic will promote the online marketing transformation of car companies
The raging virus has made it difficult for consumers to go to 4S stores to view cars and maintain them, which means that car companies If you want to maintain relatively optimistic sales, you must accelerate the transformation to online marketing such as live streaming and online car viewing, which will allow car companies' online marketing models to develop rapidly during the epidemic.
(4) The epidemic will promote the sales of automobile-related disinfection and filtration equipment
Contact the "out of stock" of daily necessities such as masks, hand sanitizers, and disinfectants. The outbreak of the epidemic will have a negative impact on PM2 Sales of disinfection and filtration equipment for .5 and other automobiles will be greatly promoted.
Summary
It is true that the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has caused immeasurable losses to the Chinese automobile industry, and even the entire Chinese economy and society, but from an objective perspective, it It will also promote the demand for private cars and online marketing of car companies to a certain extent. Everything has two sides, and challenges often come with opportunities.
Besides, difficulties are often only temporary. After the gloom passes, there will be benefits in the economy, environmental protection and other aspects. Just like Feng Zikai said, "As long as the vitality of human affairs is not extinguished, even if it is temporarily suppressed by natural disasters and man-made disasters, it will eventually rise." This day is getting closer, isn't it?
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.