Shandong was relatively concentrated in December and January, and the situation eased in February.
A few free-range families in Anhui were infected, but all of them were quickly extracted and sterilized with little loss.
The infection rate in Henan increased in December, and improved rapidly after the year.
Free-range households in Hebei have comprehensive non-plague, blue ear and diarrhea.
There were relatively many cases before the festival in Shanxi, and they got better quickly after tooth extraction.
There are sporadic cases in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangdong and Guangxi.
To sum up, the communication in early winter and spring of 223 is the season with high incidence of epidemic diseases, so it is also expected by the industry that some pig farms have the phenomenon of epidemic diseases rising. As long as the tooth extraction and disinfection work are done in time, the dangerous stage can be successfully passed.
But more importantly, the pig farms that show signs of non-epidemic diseases must "check for leaks and fill gaps" to improve the biosafety system, and always have awe of non-epidemic diseases. Sometimes an epidemic disease that leads to clearance comes from carelessness.
For example, recently, pork that is not positive for plague detection was found in raw materials purchased by a feed factory in Jiangsu, which increased the risk of epidemic spread!
On February 7th, the notice issued by Shandong Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau pointed out that at present, it is in winter and spring communication, and animal diseases have entered a period of frequent occurrence and high incidence, and the situation of prevention and control of animal diseases such as non-plague is not optimistic.
Of course, we don't have to panic too much, because the occurrence of non-epidemic diseases for more than four years has not only brought losses to the industry, but also promoted changes and development. Looking back on the progress of non-epidemic diseases in the past four years, the author has sorted out the specific historical progress of epidemic prevention-
On August 3, 218, the first African swine fever epidemic was diagnosed in China; In September of the same year, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and other provinces spread rapidly, mainly in the northern region at first, and also spread in the south from the middle and late October; By the end of 218, almost everyone is in danger, and non-plague virus threatens all pig farms in China.
In p>219, the situation of non-pestilence is equally severe, but the understanding of non-pestilence in the industry has gradually become clear, and rapid culling and disinfection have become popular.
Since p>22, a general and correct understanding of non-plague has been established in China, the biosafety system has been rapidly improved, large and small pig farms have been successfully reared, and the number of fertile sows has risen linearly.
in p>221, the prevention and control of non-epidemic diseases in China achieved remarkable results, the production capacity of live pigs rose steadily, and the price of pigs fell precipitously. Since then, the industry has entered the post-epidemic era, although the situation of non-epidemic diseases has gradually decreased, its far-reaching impact on the industry has continued to this day.
The far-reaching impact of African swine fever is the so-called "a blessing in disguise". Non-plague has indeed brought huge losses to the industry, causing a large number of pig farmers to quit, and the price of meat has soared for a time ... But we also learned from the lessons and grew up in pain. After non-plague, our sow population was completely shuffled, the national pig production capacity reached a higher level, and the scale and policy regulation became clearer .......
The data shows that in August 218, there were 31.3 million fertile sows in China. After that, the number of fertile sows dropped rapidly, until it was less than 19 million in September 219, and * * * reduced by more than 12 million!
Subsequently, with the support of high pig prices and policies, large and small pig farms across the country began to expand their production rapidly. In January 221, the number of fertile sows increased rapidly from 2 million to 31.17 million, and then maintained steady growth until it reached the peak of 45.64 million in June 221, laying the foundation for the slump in the post-plague era.
besides the change of productivity, the performance of sows has also been greatly changed.
after the baptism of non-plague, a large number of domestic original sow groups were eliminated, and a large number of new sows were introduced to foreign or domestic excellent breeding pig groups. In 22 alone, more than 3, breeding pigs were introduced to China.
with the large-scale improvement of sow population, the level of PSY began to increase at a rate far beyond the normal year! For example, in 214, China's PSY level was 15, and it was only increased to 16 in 218 four years later; However, it rose to 18.57 in 221 and 21.13 in 222 after non-plague, and the supply capacity of pigs in China was greatly enhanced, and "lack of meat" became a thing of the past.
Secondly, with the shuffling of sow productivity, another more significant change is that these high-yield sows are concentrated in the hands of large-scale farms, while the free-range households, which originally occupied the main body of the market, were largely eliminated by non-plague.
The most intuitive manifestation is that the average annual growth rate of pig breeding in China was about 2% from 27 to 221, but it accelerated rapidly in 218, with an average annual growth rate of 3%, and it increased by 4.1% in 219 to 57.1%. By 221, the scale rate has exceeded 6%!
behind the acceleration of scale, it is also the sad tears of free-range households who have no choice but to retire.
Although the free-range households have been withdrawing in recent ten years, the number of them has been particularly high around 218-the number of farm households dropped by more than 1% in 217-218; In 219, the number of farm households decreased by 27.95%, which was 4.6 times that of previous years.
Although the farmers who quit the farm are not only free-range farmers, they are mainly free-range farmers with the weakest defense ability and rehabilitation ability! From this point of view, the large-scale development of pig industry is also the general trend, and both economy and epidemic disease are promoting this process.
In addition to the above two major impacts, non-pestilence impacts include the rapid popularization and improvement of biosafety system, the explosive growth of disinfectant market, and the forced introduction of "high-temperature granulation" in feed industry.
on the one hand, the state encourages large-scale pig breeding, on the other hand, it divides the whole country into five major regions, and requires that the pigs be transported out of the region as much as possible, which promotes the historic transformation from "transporting pigs" to "transporting meat".
Therefore, although the non-plague situation is gradually leaving us, there are only sporadic infections in domestic pig farms, and it is difficult to have a large-scale illness again.
however, non-plague affects us everywhere, including the abnormal market today, which also stems from the capacity fluctuation brought by non-plague.
Looking into the future, non-pestilence vaccine is no longer the urgent expectation of everyone. Judging from the pilot project of non-pestilence in Vietnam and the influence of "vaccine virus" in previous years, even if the non-pestilence vaccine is successfully developed and commercialized, it may not be able to sit back and relax.
The author has analyzed the complicated situation of blue ear disease in China. There are more than 6 kinds of blue ear vaccine products in China, but the blue ear disease has become more and more complicated in recent years, which is also because live vaccines are easy to combine with viruses to form new strains!
if the non-epidemic live vaccine is popularized, there is also the danger of evolving new strains, which will lead to more difficult and severe prevention and control of non-epidemic diseases! To put it bluntly, for friends who are still raising pigs, non-plague is already an "old friend", and we will definitely "interfere with each other" with this old friend for a long time to come. Under this background, it is easy to overcome non-plague, but it is difficult to overcome our inertia and carelessness.